October felt like a month of two halves. Sellers returned after the summer with confidence, while buyers did their sums against mortgage rates that have climbed steadily since the spring. Add a Budget in the final week and there was plenty to digest. Here's what the numbers told us, and what we think November holds.
October in Review
Asking prices up 1.0% to £371,015, according to Rightmove. Prices are still 0.1% below last year, and stock is the highest for October since 2014.
Sales agreed down 8% on last year, with new buyer enquiries 9% lower, Rightmove reports. Zoopla puts sales agreed 7% down, a small improvement on September.
Achieved prices up 0.5% over the year, says Nationwide, the slowest pace since January 2024, with prices flat on the month. Zoopla shows 0.8%.
Put simply, sellers are pricing with confidence and buyers are being more careful. Buyers have more choice than in over a decade, and they know it. Homes are still selling, but the ones that move are the ones priced realistically from day one.
Interest Rates: What's Actually Moving
Base rate held at 3.75% in September, though three of the nine committee members voted for a rise to 4%.
Inflation rose to 3.5% in September, up from 3.1% in August, according to the ONS, driven largely by fuel.
Average fixed rates just under 6%, with Moneyfacts putting the typical two year fix at 5.97% and the five year at 5.99%. Rightmove's average two year fix is 5.55%, up from 4.25% before the conflict in Iran began in February.
In real terms, that move adds around £226 a month to a £300,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years. It explains why buyers are taking their time. Where rates go from here, we won't guess. Nobody can call that with any confidence right now.
The Regional Picture
The South East is a little softer than the country as a whole Average asking prices here rose 0.9% to £475,582 in October but are 0.9% lower than a year ago, compared with almost flat nationally, according to Rightmove. Zoopla also notes prices dipping slightly across the region. Much of that is affordability: higher prices feel higher rates more keenly.
Underneath, larger family homes are holding up better. Rightmove's top of the ladder sector, typically four bedroom detached homes and above, rose 0.8% to £678,431 and sits 0.3% above last year, while first time buyer homes are 0.5% down. Families moving for schools and space usually have equity and a clear reason to move, so they're less exposed to every turn in rates.
That matches how it feels on the ground across Surrey and Kent. Buyers in Godalming and Sevenoaks are viewing carefully, asking good questions and negotiating, but the right home at the right price is still finding its buyer.
What November Holds
The Bank of England decides on 5 November, its first decision since September's split vote, alongside a fresh Monetary Policy Report.
The Budget has settled some nerves. Stamp duty is unchanged, and the long trailed surcharge on homes in England worth over £2 million is confirmed, though it doesn't begin until April 2028.
The seasonal rhythm shifts. November buyers tend to be committed movers, and a sale agreed now typically completes in spring, in good time for September school places.
Expect a quieter month on the surface, with fewer casual viewers but more serious ones.
If You're Thinking of Selling
Pricing is the decision that matters most right now. Zoopla found that 41% of homes priced below their estimated value sold within 90 days, against 26% of those priced 20% or more above it, and homes that needed a reduction sold far less often than those that didn't. With so much competition, buyers compare carefully. Launch at a price that invites viewings, and make sure the photography, floorplan and story of the home are right from the very first day. You only get one first week on the market.
If You're Buying
Choice is on your side, and with homes taking around 44 days to find a buyer according to Zoopla, there's room to negotiate thoughtfully. Get an agreement in principle in place early, as lenders are repricing regularly, and be ready to move when the right home appears.
Our Read
The headlines will say prices are stalling, and on paper they are. Look a little closer, though, and buyers are still moving, family homes are holding their ground and the homes that launch well are still selling. This is a market that rewards good judgement more than good timing.
We'd always rather a considered market than a frantic one, and the right home, beautifully presented, still finds its people.
